Team News
Manchester United forward Nani is a big concern for Portugal, as he may not be fully fit to feature in Saturday's match against Germany. His pace on and off the ball has proven to be an important factor for a Portuguese front line that lacks a killer instinct in front of goal. Some media outlets have gone as far as saying he will definitely play, but all signs point to a Saturday morning decision.
For Germany, they appear to be ready to build on a third place finish in World Cup 2010. The Germany players are aware of the problems they could potentially encounter against Portugal, but appear to be up for the task.
Real Madrid midfielder Sami Khedira believes that Germany have the best tactic to defeat Portugal on Saturday. "We need to play tight defense on him, take away his space so he can lose his desire to play," said Khedira in an interview earlier this week.
Game Plan Analysis
It seems that for years now Portugal has continuously had the same game plan no matter whom they play against. The one dimensional style of football where they defend with 10 men behind the ball and then try to break on the counter attack with Ronaldo is what the Portuguese have shown over the last few years. Although Ronaldo has incredible pace on and off the ball, their dependence of Ronaldo has become somewhat of a problem for them.
Most teams, if not all who play against Portugal already know that frustrating Ronaldo early in the game will really throw off their game plan. Without an inspired Ronaldo on the field, it is very difficult for Portugal to create offense considering majority of their offense goes through him.
Portuguese head coach Paulo Bento has said that to beat Germany, his players will need courage and organization. In an interview to UEFA, Bento said:
"For us to beat Germany we need to be organized. We need to have courage because if we only think about defending then we certainly are not going to get a positive result. We need to always attack in an organized fashion. Above all, we need to be strong and aggressive, especially if we lose the ball."
Hugo Almeida most likely will get the start up top for Portugal, leaving Helder Postiga and newcomer Nelson Oliveira on the bench. Getting the ball into the box with just one striker will be difficult as it is.
Now, if you also take into consideration the fact that Hugo Almeida although tall, isn't the most dangerous player in the box, you now have a cause for concern. A strong and well prepared German back line should keep Hugo Almeida quiet, but will have to worry about the pace and creativity the Portuguese have on the wings.
For the Germans, head coach Joachim Low has a number of top class players at his disposal, particularly in the midfield. Bayern Munich midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger will be in charge of running the show in the midfield with the help of Mesut Ozil. These two not only have experience, but also are two of the greatest midfielders in the game today.
With Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez ready to hit the back of the net for Germany, the German midfield will just have to focus on getting the ball to the front line. While Mario Gomez had a good club season at Bayern Munich, Klose is considered to be one of the great strikers in the game, and he has proven it time and time again for the Mannschaft.
The German back line also doesn't lack experience with players like Philipp Lahm, Per Mertesacker and Jerome Boateng just to name a few. Mertesacker just recently returned from an injury that kept him out of the later stage of the Arsenal season, but Low will likely take the gamble. Captain Philipp Lahm will likely feature as left back, although he normally plays on the right for Bayern.
Head to Head
In the last three meetings between these two dating back to Euro 2000 in Belgium and Netherlands, the Germans have a 2-1 advantage over the Portuguese.
Euro 2000 (Group Stage) Portugal 3-0 Germany
Three goals from Sergio Conceicao put an end to a poor campaign for Germany as they crashed out of Group A in last place with just one point.
World Cup 2006 (Third Place Match) Germany 3-1 Portugal
Bastian Schweinsteiger ran all over the Portuguese as the World Cup hosts finished third that year. An own goal from Petit and a last minute consolation goal from Nuno Gomes was not enough for Portugal this time around.
Euro 2008 (Quarter-Finals) Portugal 2-3 Germany
Two quick goals from Schweinsteiger and Klose in a four-minute span dictated the beginning of the end for Portugal. Nuno Gomes made it 1-2 for Germany just before halftime, but Ballack's third goal in the 61st minute put any doubts to rest.
Recent Form Analysis
Portugal head into Euro 2012 on two negative results in their final two preparation matches. A poor performance against Macedonia ended in a scoreless draw and raised a lot of questions from the Portuguese fans and media.
In their final test before heading to Poland, Turkey stole the show at the Estadio da Luz as they defeated the host 3-1. The Portuguese may have dictated the run of play for periods of the game, but their lack of a true target man and suspect defending at times cost them once again.
For Germany, they were able to end their preparation on a positive note, but they will certainly not forget the 5-3 defeat to Switzerland. With Schweinsteiger out due to injury and the German back line looking extremely vulnerable, the Swiss had a match to remember. Their final match against Israel ended in a 2-0 victory for the Mannschaft, allowing them to head into Euro 2012 on a positive note.
Prediction
Looking at both teams on paper, it is difficult to not agree that Germany may have a better side overall. Fortunately for Portugal in this case, the difference is made on the field and not on paper. With that said, it will not be easy for Portugal to claim a victory in this match, but it is very possible.
With arguably the best player in Euro 2012 by a long shot, Portugal will have to have a plan B if the Germans are to frustrate Ronaldo early.
Expect a very tactical game for majority of the first half with neither team wanting to make a crucial mistake early on. The longer Germany can keep Portugal off the scoreboard; the frustration will begin to set in for the Portuguese and could end up making things easier for the Germans.
Schweinsteiger and Ozil will be the important pieces for Germany, and Low will need them to have a positive performance if he expects the full three points Saturday.
Germany 1-0 Portugal
